UCERF3

The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

A Synoptic Overview (SRL Publication)

Long-Term Models

Quick Information

• Fact Sheet (a non-technical summary)
• Press Release
• Video
• Google Earth file with fault probabilities

UCERF3-TD – Time Dependent Model

• Main Report (2015, BSSA); pdf
• Electronic Supplements
• Known Issues and Corrections

UCERF3-TI – Time Independent Model

• Main Report (2014, BSSA); pdf
• USGS Open-File-Report (with appedices and electronic supplements)

Implementation Instructions (for technical users)

Spatiotemporal Clustering Model

UCERF3-ETAS — Including aftershocks and otherwise triggered events:

• Main Report (2017, BSSA)
• Synoptic Overview (SRL Publication)
• Operational Loss Modeling Based on UCERF3-ETAS (2017, Earthquake Spectra)
• Candidate OEF Products for the Haywired Earthquake Scenario (2018, SRL)
• Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence (2020, SRL)
• Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3‐ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence (2020, SRL)
• All Electronic Supplements

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