Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

The WGCEP is responsible for developing Uniform California Earthquake Forecasts (UCERFs) using the best available science.

The working group convenes periodically to build statewide, time-dependent earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) that are endorsed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and the California Geological Survey (CGS).

For details on the goals of the current working group,
please see the UCERF 3 Project Plan.

For the results of the 2007 working group,
please see the UCERF 2 Final Report.