WGCEP: Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities


This page lists the WGCEP participants for UCERF3, and may be out of date.

Executive Committee (ExCom)

The ExCom is responsible for convening experts, reviewing options, making recommendations, and orchestrating implementation of the model and supporting databases. The role of the ExCom is not to advocate specific model components, but to ensure that a minimum set of models is considered that spans the range of viability.

Membership Affiliation
Edward (Ned) Field (Chair) USGS, Golden
Timothy Dawson CGS
Andrew Michael USGS, Menlo Park
Thomas Parsons USGS, Menlo Park
Ray Weldon Univ. of Oregon

Management Oversight Committee (MOC)

The MOC is in charge of resource allocation and approving project plans, budgets, and schedules. The MOC is also responsible for seeing that the models are properly reviewed and delivered.

Membership Affiliation
Thomas Jordan (Chair) SCEC Director
Tom Brocher USGS, Menlo Park
Jill McCarthy USGS, Golden
Chris Wills CGS

Scientific Review Panel (SRP)

The SRP is an independent body of experts who will decide whether the WGCEP has considered an adequate range of models, given the forecast duration of interest, and that logic-tree branch weights have been set appropriately.

Membership Affiliation
Bill Ellsworth (Chair) USGS, Menlo Park
Duncan Agnew Scripps, IGPP
Ramon Arrowsmith Arizona State University
Yehuda Ben-Zion Univ. Southern California
Greg Beroza (PC liaison) Stanford
Mike Blanpied USGS, Reston
Arthur Frankel USGS, Seattle
Sue Hough USGS, Pasadena
Warner Marzocchi INGV, Italy
Hamid Haddadi CGS
Rick Shoenberg UCLA
David Schwartz USGS, Menlo Park

UCERF3 Deformation Model Evaluation Committee

These are individuals are responsible for evaluating the suite of deformation models proposed in UCERF3 and assigning relative weights to each in the final model.

Membership Affiliation
Tom Parsons (Chair) USGS, Menlo Park
Jack Boatwright USGS, Menlo Park
Timothy Dawson CGS
Arthur Frankel USGS, Seattle
Jim Dieterich UC Riverside
Dave Jackson UCLA
Wayne Thatcher USGS, Menlo Park
Ray Weldon Univ. or Oregon
Chris Wills CGS


These are individuals that contribute in a major way, either by providing expert opinion or specific model components. These individuals are likely to receive funding for their activities and are expected to document their contributions via peer-reviewed publications.

Membership Affiliation
Ramon Arrowsmith ASU
Glenn Biasi Univ. of Nevada, Reno
Peter Bird UCLA
Karen Felzer USGS, Pasadena
Jeanne Hardebeck USGS, Menlo Park
Ruth Harris USGS, Menlo Park
Dave Jackson UCLA
Kaj Johnson Indiana
Kevin Milner SCEC
Anna Olsen USGS, Golden
Morgan Page USGS, Pasadena
Keith Porter Univ. of Colorado
Peter Powers USGS, Golden
Danijel Schorlemmer SCEC
Bruce Shaw Columbia Univ. (LDEO)
Wayne Thatcher USGS, Menlo Park
Yuehua Zeng USGS, Golden
Christopher Madden OSU

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