Versions

The UCERFs discussed here are based on the UCERF Model Framework.

UCERF 1

This UCERF was delivered to the CEA on February 8, 2006, following a review by the Scientific Review Panel and members of CEPEC . Full documentation is available on pages 5-28 of the CEA Report.

In short, the model is based on version 1 of each component:

Fault
Model 1→Deformation
Model 1→Earthquake
Rate
Model 1→Earthquake
Probability
Model 1

Notes:

All epistemic uncertainties are treated as aleatory in this model.
This model represented best practice of the time and is similar to the one in use by the CEA in 2006.
This model is intended to represent a progress milestone for the WGCEP, and is not intended to be used for anything other than a prototype for UCERF 2 (see below).

UCERF 2

This model was publically released on April 14, 2008. The final report is available on the USGS website, with additional information and summaries available on the SCEC website. This model is based on version 2 of each component:

Fault
Model 2→Deformation
Model 2→Earthquake
Rate
Model 2→Earthquake
Probability
Model 2

UCERF 3

The third iteration of UCERF is currently ramping up. For more details, please see the project plan .

Fault
Model 3→Deformation
Model 3→Earthquake
Rate
Model 3→Earthquake
Probability
Model 3