The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

A Synoptic Overview (SRL Publication)

Long-Term Models

Quick Information: 

• Fact Sheet (a non-technical summary)
• Press Release
• Video
• Google Earth file with fault probabilities

UCERF3-TD --- Time-Dependent Model:

• Main Report (2015, BSSA); pdf
• Electronic Supplements
• Known Issues and Corrections

UCERF3-TI --- Time-Independent Model:

• Main Report (2014, BSSA); pdf
• USGS Open-File-Report (with appedices and electronic supplements)

Implementation Instructions (for technical users)
 

Spatiotemporal Clustering Model

UCERF3-ETAS --- Including aftershocks and otherwise triggered events: 

• Main Report (2017, BSSA)
• Synoptic Overiew (listed at the top of this page)
• Operational Loss Modeling Based on UCERF3-ETAS (2017, Earthquake Spectra)
• Candidate OEF Products for the Haywired Earthquake Scenario (2018, SRL)
• All Electronic Supplements