The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
A Synoptic Overview (SRL Publication)
Long-Term Models
Quick Information:
- Fact Sheet (a non-technical summary)
- Press Release
- Video
- Google Earth file with fault probabilities
UCERF3-TD --- Time-Dependent Model:
UCERF3-TI --- Time-Independent Model:
Implementation Instructions (for technical users)
Spatiotemporal Clustering Model
UCERF3-ETAS --- Including aftershocks and otherwise triggered events:
- Main Report (2017, BSSA)
- Synoptic Overiew (listed at the top of this page)
- Operational Loss Modeling Based on UCERF3-ETAS (2017, Earthquake Spectra)
- Candidate OEF Products for the Haywired Earthquake Scenario (2018, SRL)
- All Electronic Supplements