Workshop on Testing UCERF3 and other Fault- and/or Simulation-Based Earthquake Forecast

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Goal: to map out 5-year plan for CSEP2 testing of UCERF3 and related models

Workshop Description: With the completion of UCERF3-ETAS, and the initiation of CSEP2, this 4th and final Powell Center workshop will develop both short and long-term plans for testing fault- and/or simulation-based earthquake forecasts. The meeting will include a review of CSEP1 testing capabilities and their applicability to UCERF3 and other OEF models under development. The meeting will also review tests that are not currently implemented in CSEP (e.g., the “Turing” tests of Page and van der Elst), as well as brainstorm on new tests with particular emphasis on fault- and simulation-based forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss how future code development can be better coordinated between CSEP, OpenSHA/UCERFs, the USGS NSHM, and OEF IT developments in Menlo Park.