Workshop on Testing UCERF3 and other Fault- and/or Simulation-Based Earthquake Forecast

Monday, February 26, 2018 - Thursday, March 1, 2018
USGS Powell Center, Fort Collins, CO

Goal: to map out 5-year plan for CSEP2 testing of UCERF3 and related models

Workshop Description: With the completion of UCERF3-ETAS, and the initiation of CSEP2, this 4th and final Powell Center workshop will develop both short and long-term plans for testing fault- and/or simulation-based earthquake forecasts. The meeting will include a review of CSEP1 testing capabilities and their applicability to UCERF3 and other OEF models under development. The meeting will also review tests that are not currently implemented in CSEP (e.g., the “Turing” tests of Page and van der Elst), as well as brainstorm on new tests with particular emphasis on fault- and simulation-based forecasts. Finally, we will also discuss how future code development can be better coordinated between CSEP, OpenSHA/UCERFs, the USGS NSHM, and OEF IT developments in Menlo Park.

Day 1 

Welcoming remarks and introduction (Ned Field) 

Models Under Development (status, rollout schedule, and testability challenges) 

(each presentation should be about 20 minutes) 

  • R&J for USGS OAF (Jeanne Hardebeck) 

  • Temporal ETAS (Nicholas van der Elst) 

  • Temporal and Spatial ETAS (Nicholas van der Elst) 

  • ETAS with Time Varying Background (Andrea Llenos) 

  • UCERF3-TI, -TD and -ETAS (Ned Field) 

  • RSQSim (Bruce Shaw, Kevin Milner, & Jacquelyn Gilchrist) 


Day 2 

Model Testing 

  • Objectives & Challenges of Model Testing (Tom Jordan); ~10min 

  • Tutorial on CSEP1 Testing Procedures (Max Werner & Andy Michael); ~30min 

  • Status of CSEP1 Infrastructure (Bill Savran & Phil Maechling); ~10min 

  • Turing Tests of UCERF3, and the Paleo Hiatus (Morgan Page & Nicholas van der Elst); ~20 min 

  • Testing other USGS OEF/OAF Models (Andy Michael); ~15 min 

  • Testing Simulation-based Forecasts (David Rhoades); ~15 min 

  • Testing Fault-based Models (David Jackson); ~15 min 

  • Considering Epistemic Uncertainties (Warner Marzocchi & Tom Jordan); ~15 min 

  • Event Triggered Testing (Max Werner); ~15 min 

  • Ensemble Forecasting (Rhoades and Marzocchi); ~15 min 


Day 3 

5-Year Plan for CSEP2 

(each presentation should be about 10 minutes) 

  • USGS perspective (Mike Blanpied) 

  • SCEC Perspective (John Vidale & Christine Goulet) 

  • NZ Perspective (Matt Gerstenerger) 

  • Italian Perspective (Warner Marzocchi) 

  • Formulation of Priorities and Recommendations (Ned Field & Max Werner) 


Coordinating Code Development and Data Management 

(each presentation should be about 10 minutes) 

  • Data Access Needs of Researchers (Max Werner) 

  • NSHMP Perspective (Ned Field & Peter Powers) 

  • SCEC Perspective (Phil Maechling, Bill Savran, & Kevin Milner) 

  • Coordination Plan Development (all)