Review of Operational Earthquake Forecasting Capabilities

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Introduction/Overview

The ongoing WGCEP has developed and published a full OEF model for California, known as UCERF3-ETAS.  At the same time progress has been made with respect improving the relatively simple aftershock notifications issued by the USGS for other parts of the world.  This meeting will involve a comprehensive review of these capabilities, including examination of the scientific underpinnings as well as the potential usefulness.  With respect to the latter, several potential early adopters will be in attendance in order to articulate potential use cases and their perceived value.  Given the significant resources needed for further operationalization, the goal of this meeting is to provide guidance to the USGS on what level of effort should be put into developing these capabilities.

Questions for Reviewers:

  1. Should the USGS replace Reasenberg-Jones models with ETAS models to quantify aftershock probabilities? 

  2. Should the USGS use the fault-based UCERF3-ETAS model in quantifying short-term earthquake probabilities in California?

  3. What type of testing is necessary and sufficient to qualify a short-term earthquake forecast model for general operational use or use in specific applications?

  4. Given the state of earthquake science and the potential utility of short-term forecasting, what level of effort should the USGS put into OEF?

 

Questions for Potential Users:

  1. What hazard or risk metrics (e.g., Table 1) you are concerned about?

  2. What gains (increase relative to long-term risk) would you find actionable?

  3. What timeframes are you interested in (because gains decay with time)?

  4. Can you put a value on this information to you and/or your clients?

 

 

Table 1. List of various OEF hazard and risk products.

 

UCERF3-ETAS Documents

Reviewers those having any one of the following roles specified in the list of participants: NEPEC, CEPEC, SESAC, or Observer.