UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting #3

Wednesday, February 13, 2013 - Thursday, February 14, 2013
Ned Field and Tim Dawson
USGS Menlo Park Campus

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities will convene small group meetings (at USGS Menlo Park and USGS Pasadena) to evaluate the UCERF3.2 faults. The goal of the meeting is to evaluate for each fault section:

  1. Participation Magnitude Frequency Distributions (or recurrence interval vs magnitude for those that prefer), with comparisons to UCERF2.
  2. Slip-rate and moment-rate values for both UCERF2 and UCERF3 (e.g., to understand whether earthquake rate changes are due to slip rate modifications or methodological differences).
  3. 3D visualization of all ruptures that utilize the fault section (e.g., so we can see what's contributing, and how far multi-fault ruptures are stretching)
  4. Recurrence interval maps from Tim Dawson

We want to identify anything that cannot be correct (hopefully nothing) and to identify areas to be handled differently in future UCERFs. In case we run out of time, we can prioritize with respect the most hazardous faults, the ones where we have some paleoseismic understanding, or any other criteria you might have. Any faults we don't get to we can simply tag for followup scrutiny, while also identifying the experts we'd like to have take a look.

Go To: UCERF3.2 Fault by Fault Evaluation Materials

Time Title Presenter(s)
Feb 13 (09:00 – 17:00) UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting TBA
Feb 14 (09:00 – 15:00) UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting TBA



The meeting will convene at the USGS Menlo Park Campus, in the "smaller, windowless conference room across from the main Menlo auditorium".

Attendees: Ned Field (USGS-ExCom), Tom Parsons (USGS-ExCom), Tim Dawson (CGS-ExCom), Morgan Page (USGS-Core), Kevin Milner (SCEC-Core), David Schwartz (USGS-SRP), Jim Lienkaemper (USGS), Suzanne Hecker (USGS), Gordon Seitz (CGS), Keith Kelson (URS), Tom Freeman (Geopentec), Bob Anderson (CEA), Chris Wills (CGS-MOC), Glenn Biasi (UNR-Core), Peter Bird (UCLA-Core), Carol Prentice (USGS), Jeanne Hardebeck (USGS), Russ Graymer (USGS), Chesley Williams (RMS), Bob McLaughlin (USGS), Bill Ellsworth (USGS-SRP)