UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting #2

Friday, January 25, 2013
Ned Field and Tim Dawson
USGS Pasadena, Caltech Campus

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities will convene two small group meetings (at USGS Menlo Park and USGS Pasadena) to evaluate the UCERF3.2 faults. The goal of the meeting is to evaluate for each fault section:

  1. Participation Magnitude Frequency Distributions (or recurrence interval vs magnitude for those that prefer), with comparisons to UCERF2.
  2. Slip-rate and moment-rate values for both UCERF2 and UCERF3 (e.g., to understand whether earthquake rate changes are due to slip rate modifications or methodological differences).
  3. 3D visualization of all ruptures that utilize the fault section (e.g., so we can see what's contributing, and how far multi-fault ruptures are stretching)
  4. Recurrence interval maps from Tim Dawson

We want to identify anything that cannot be correct (hopefully nothing) and to identify areas to be handled differently in future UCERFs. In case we run out of time, we can prioritize with respect the most hazardous faults, the ones where we have some paleoseismic understanding, or any other criteria you might have. Any faults we don't get to we can simply tag for followup scrutiny, while also identifying the experts we'd like to have take a look.

Go To: UCERF3.2 Fault by Fault Evaluation Materials

Time Title Presenter(s)
09:00 – 16:30 UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting TBA



The meeting will convene at the USGS Pasadena Conference Room (525 South Wilson Ave., Pasadena CA 91106).Park at Structure #1 (North Wilson Structure) and  Structure #3 (California Structure) are close to the USGS & both have automated pay stations. An all-day permit is $6. Download map/directions (on map, the USGS building is directly south of the building marked "credit union").

Remote participation will not be available.

Due to limited meeting space, please RSVP.

Attendees: Bob Anderson (remote), Peter Bird, Tim Dawson, James Dolan, Bill Ellsworth, Karen Felzer, Edward Field, Tom Freeman, David Jackson, Kevin Milner, David Oglesby, Morgan Page, Mark Petersen, Peter Powers, Tom Rockwell, Kate Scharer, David Schwartz, Ray Weldon (remote), and Yuehua Zeng