UCERF3.2 Fault by Fault Evaluation Materials

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities will convene two small group meetings [at USGS Menlo Park (Jan 24, 2013) and USGS Pasadena (January 25, 2013)] to evaluate the UCERF3.2 faults. The materials will be reviewed and evaluated at the meetings. The goal of the meetings is to evaluate for each fault section:

  1. Participation Magnitude Frequency Distributions (or recurrence interval vs magnitude for those that prefer), with comparisons to UCERF2.
  2. Slip-rate and moment-rate values for both UCERF2 and UCERF3 (e.g., to understand whether earthquake rate changes are due to slip rate modifications or methodological differences).
  3. 3D visualization of all ruptures that utilize the fault section (e.g., so we can see what's contributing, and how far multi-fault ruptures are stretching)
  4. Recurrence interval maps from Tim Dawson

We want to identify anything that cannot be correct (hopefully nothing) and to identify areas to be handled differently in future UCERFs. In case we run out of time, we can prioritize with respect the most hazardous faults, the ones where we have some paleoseismic understanding, or any other criteria you might have. Any faults we don't get to we can simply tag for followup scrutiny, while also identifying the experts we'd like to have take a look.

Maps of UCERF 3.2 M>=6.7 "mini-section" participation recurrence intervals (MRIs):




Participation Recurrence-Interval vs Mag (and Mag Freq Dist, "MFD") Plots for each Fault Section are bundled in the following zip file:


Tabulated Fault Section Data (see "Summary Results tab):


Paleo Sites Data (see "Summary Results" tab):


Plots of U3.2 Paleo-Data Fits along faults that have such data (see files ending with "combined.png" to see slip rates plotted too at top):

click here

(for the legend, please see this OLD example)

More U3.2 Results and Plots:

click here