UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting #1

Thursday, January 24, 2013
Ned Field and Tim Dawson
USGS Menlo Park Campus

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities will convene two small group meetings (at USGS Menlo Park and USGS Pasadena) to evaluate the UCERF3.2 faults. The goal of the meeting is to evaluate for each fault section:

  1. Participation Magnitude Frequency Distributions (or recurrence interval vs magnitude for those that prefer), with comparisons to UCERF2.
  2. Slip-rate and moment-rate values for both UCERF2 and UCERF3 (e.g., to understand whether earthquake rate changes are due to slip rate modifications or methodological differences).
  3. 3D visualization of all ruptures that utilize the fault section (e.g., so we can see what's contributing, and how far multi-fault ruptures are stretching)
  4. Recurrence interval maps from Tim Dawson

We want to identify anything that cannot be correct (hopefully nothing) and to identify areas to be handled differently in future UCERFs. In case we run out of time, we can prioritize with respect the most hazardous faults, the ones where we have some paleoseismic understanding, or any other criteria you might have. Any faults we don't get to we can simply tag for followup scrutiny, while also identifying the experts we'd like to have take a look.

Go To: UCERF3.2 Fault by Fault Evaluation Materials

Time Title Presenter(s)
09:00 – 16:30 UCERF3.2 Fault-by-fault Evaluation Meeting TBA



The meeting will convene at the USGS Menlo Park Campus, Building 3, Room 3235 (“Nevada” conference room, across from Main Auditorium). Remote participation will not be available.

Due to limited meeting space, please RSVP.

Attendees: Bob Anderson, Greg Beroza, Mike Blanpied, Jack Boatwright, Ben Brooks, Tim Dawson, Bill Ellsworth, Ned Field, Russ Graymer, Ruth Harris, Suzanne Hecker, Keith Knudsen, Jim Lienkaemper, Bill Lettis, Kevin Milner, Morgan Page, Tom Parsons, Carol Prentice, Dave Schwartz, Ray Weldon (remote), Chesley Williams, Chris Wills