Workshop on Use of UCERF3 in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps #1

Wednesday, October 17, 2012 - Thursday, October 18, 2012
Mark Petersen and Ned Field
Pacific Research Center, Newark, CA

We are hosting a workshop to address the time-independent component of the next Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) on October 17-18 at Pacific Research Center, Dumberton Conference Room (2nd Floor), 7677 Gateway Blvd, Newark, CA 94560 ( The meeting will begin at 8:00am on the 17th and end at noon on the 18th (with a meeting on deformation models following the next day and a half). Achieving two of the goals with UCERF3 (relaxing segmentation and including multi-fault ruptures) has required significant changes in how the model is constructed.  We will therefore give an overview of UCERF3 modeling framework, present current results, discuss some issues with both the data and methodology, and solicit feedback on how to best resolve these issues before finalizing UCERF3.  Unlike past workshops, this one will not address ground motion prediction equations, as these will be the topic of a later workshop.

Time Title Presenter(s)
Wednesday October 17th (moderated by Ned Field)  
8:00 – 8:15 am Opening Remarks and Meeting Goals Mark Petersen
8:15 – 8:20 am CEA Relationship Tom Jordan
8:20 – 8:25 am Review Process for UCERF3 Bill Ellsworth
8:25 – 8:45 am Introduction of UCERF3 Development Ned Field
8:45 – 9:15 am New Fault Models & Geological Slip Rates Tim Dawson
9:15 – 10:00 am UCERF3 Deformation Models Tom Parsons
10:00 – 10:15 am Break  
10:15 – 10:45 am Some Implications of Deformation Models & Seismicity Observations Ned Field
10:45 – 11:15 am General Discussion  
11:15 – 12:00 pm Setting Up the Grand Inversion Ned Field
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch  
1:00 – 1:45 pm Grand Inversion Details & Fits to Data (simulated annealing, equation set weights, & inversion convergence properties) Morgan Page
1:45 – 2:30 pm General Implications of Results Ned Field
2:30 – 2:45 pm Break  
2:45 – 3:30 pm Hazard Implications Peter Powers
3:30 – 4:30 pm General Discussion and Further Details Where Requested  
4:30 – 5:30 pm SCEC VDO Tutorial (3D Visualization for exploring UCERF3 models) Kevin Milner
Thursday October 18th (moderated by Mark Petersen)  
8:00 – 9:00 am Continued Discussion and Further Details as Requested  
9:00 – 9:15 am NSHMP Decision Making Process for the 2014 Map Update Mark Petersen
9:15 – 9:30 am WGCEP's Recommendations for 2014 Maps Ned Field
9:30 – 9:45 am An Independent Perspective Art Frankel
9:45 – 10:00 am Scientific Review Panel Perspective Bill Ellsworth
10:00 – 10:15 am Building Code Perspective Nico Luco
10:15 – 12:00 pm Feedback From Others, and Establishing Consensus on the Best Path Forward Mark Petersen



There is no cost to attend any of our workshops and they are open to all, but note that this will be a scientific working meeting, not focused on policy or outreach issues. Please forward this invitation to any interested colleagues that we may have missed. You are requested to RSVP to Cassandra Brew to get an head count of the number of participants.

Location: Pacific Research Center
Dumbarton Conference Room (2nd Floor)
7677 Gateway Blvd
Newark, CA 94560

W Silicon Valley
8200 Gateway Boulevard
Newark, CA 94560
(510) 494-8800
For special rates, mention "USGS Conference" when reserving your room. The conference room is about 5 min walking distance from the hotel.

Please see the UCERF3 website for more information related to California earthquake hazard.

If you are interested in attending the workshop, please send an email to Cassandra Brew at RMS who is handling logistics. If you haven't found accommodation yet, she can assist you.