Workshop on Distribution of Slip in Large Earthquakes

Saturday, June 11, 2011
Bruce Shaw, Glenn Biasi, Ray Weldon, & Tom Parsons
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

This workshop will address the following: a) slip distribution along strike, especially when multiple faults are involved; b) slip distribution down dip and whether larger events penetrate deeper (important for resolving current mag-area discrepancies); and c) theoretical and observational constraints on the propensity for ruptures to jump from one fault to another.

Time Title Presenter(s)
08:30 Welcome; Goals of Workshop Glenn Biasi / Bruce Shaw
08:40 The Importance of the Distribution of Slip in Large Earthquakes to UCERF3 Ned Field
09:10 Along-Strike Distribution of Average Slip: Observational Review Glenn Biasi
09:40 Magnitude-Scaling Relationships and Depth of Rupture Bruce Shaw
10:10 Discussion  
10:30 Break  
11:00 Recipe for Dsr, including mean values and both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties  
  From Scaling Considerations Bruce Shaw
  Empirical Approach Glenn Biasi
12:30 Lunch  
13:30 Paleoseismic Observations of Slip: Slip in Last-Event Data, Coefficients of Variation, and Probability of Missed Events (e.g. as a function of magnitude), Database Chris Madden / Ray Weldon / Tim Dawson
14:00 Fault-to-Fault Jumping Probabilities: Observational Constraints Glenn Biasi / Steve Wesnousky
14:15 Fault-to-Fault Jumping Probabilities: Ranking via Coulomb Calculations Tom Parsons
14:45 Fault-to-Fault Jumping: Dynamic Perspectives David Oglesby
15:15 Discussion, Fault-to-Fault Recommendations, Implementation in Inversion Ray Weldon / Tom Parsons
15:30 Break  
16:00 Reprise: Recipe for Dsr, Thoughts and Recommendations Light of the Data and Discussion Bruce Shaw / Glenn Biasi / Ned Field
16:30 Conclusions, Recommendations, Review of Action Items Glenn Biasi / Bruce Shaw
17:00 Adjourn