Workshop on Instrumental & Historical Seismicity in UCERF3

Date: 
Friday, June 10, 2011
Conveners: 
Andy Michael, Karen Felzer, Ned Field, Dave Jackson, & Tom Parsons
Location: 
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

This workshop will review issues and proposed solutions with respect to the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs, with particular emphasis on how this influences: a) the association of events to specific faults; b) inferred temporal variations in earthquake rates; and c) regional magnitude-frequency distribution estimates.  This workshop will also address best practices for estimating the spatial distributions of a-values, maximum magnitudes, and focal mechanisms for background seismicity (events off our explicitly modeled faults).

Time Title Presenter(s)
08:30 Introduction to the Day Andy Michael
08:45 How Seismicity Was Used in UCERF2 and Plans for Its Use in UCERF3 Ned Field
09:15 Review of Catalogs and Rate Determination in UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 Andy Michael
09:45 Discussion of UCERF2 - What Needs to Change and is Not on the Rest of the Agenda? Andy Michael, Moderator
10:15 Break  
10:30 Instrumental Catalog Magnitude Issues Andy Michael
11:00 Toward a US National Catalog Bill Bakun
11:15 Historical Earthquakes: Issues & Biases Sue Hough
11:30 Discussion David Jackson, Moderator
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Focal Mechanisms and Mmax for Off-Fault Seismicity David Jackson
13:15 Smoothed Seismicity Rates Karen Felzer
13:30 Declustering, Rates, and b-values Andy Michael
13:45 b-values and Spatial Variability Karen Felzer
14:00 Break  
14:15 Discussion Ned Field
15:00 Evidence for the Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distribution Norm Abrahamson
15:30 Evidence for the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution Morgan Page
16:00 Forecast Application Example: Japan, Tohoku Earthquake Yan Kagan
16:15 Discussion Tom Parsons, Moderator
17:00 Adjourn - all problems solved