Workshop on Instrumental & Historical Seismicity in UCERF3

Friday, June 10, 2011
Andy Michael, Karen Felzer, Ned Field, Dave Jackson, & Tom Parsons
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

This workshop will review issues and proposed solutions with respect to the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs, with particular emphasis on how this influences: a) the association of events to specific faults; b) inferred temporal variations in earthquake rates; and c) regional magnitude-frequency distribution estimates.  This workshop will also address best practices for estimating the spatial distributions of a-values, maximum magnitudes, and focal mechanisms for background seismicity (events off our explicitly modeled faults).

Time Title Presenter(s)
08:30 Introduction to the Day Andy Michael
08:45 How Seismicity Was Used in UCERF2 and Plans for Its Use in UCERF3 Ned Field
09:15 Review of Catalogs and Rate Determination in UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 Andy Michael
09:45 Discussion of UCERF2 - What Needs to Change and is Not on the Rest of the Agenda? Andy Michael, Moderator
10:15 Break  
10:30 Instrumental Catalog Magnitude Issues Andy Michael
11:00 Toward a US National Catalog Bill Bakun
11:15 Historical Earthquakes: Issues & Biases Sue Hough
11:30 Discussion David Jackson, Moderator
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Focal Mechanisms and Mmax for Off-Fault Seismicity David Jackson
13:15 Smoothed Seismicity Rates Karen Felzer
13:30 Declustering, Rates, and b-values Andy Michael
13:45 b-values and Spatial Variability Karen Felzer
14:00 Break  
14:15 Discussion Ned Field
15:00 Evidence for the Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distribution Norm Abrahamson
15:30 Evidence for the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution Morgan Page
16:00 Forecast Application Example: Japan, Tohoku Earthquake Yan Kagan
16:15 Discussion Tom Parsons, Moderator
17:00 Adjourn - all problems solved