Workshop on Time-Dependent Models in UCERF3
Date:
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Conveners:
Ned Field, Karen Felzer, Andy Michael, & Tom Parsons
Location:
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA This workshop will address what represents both “best-available science” and implementable models with respect to time-dependent probabilities in our UCERF3 operational forecast. Of particular emphasis here will be how to apply elastic rebound in un-segmented fault models, how to represent spatiotemporal clustering (e.g., ETAS), and the interpretation of the empirical model (apparent seismicity rate changes).
| Time | Title | Presenter(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Welcome and Introduction | Andy Michael |
| 08:35 | Time Dependent Models in UCERF2 and Our Plan For UCERF3 | Ned Field |
| 09:30 | A (re-) New (-ed) Spin on Renewal Models | Karen Felzer |
| 09:45 | Discussion of Renewal Models | Dave Jackson, Moderator |
| 10:30 | Break | |
| 10:45 | The Empirical Model and Clustering as a Cause of Long-Term Seismicity Rate Variations | Karen Felzer |
| 11:00 | Should Physics-Based Models Be Implemented for Short-Term and Long-Term Probabilities? | Tom Parsons |
| 11:15 | Discussion of the Empirical and Physics-Based Models | Andy Michael, Moderator |
| 12:00 | Lunch | Pacifica Room |
| 13:00 | Evaluation of the UCERF2 ETAS Simulation Results | Karen Felzer |
| 13:15 | Magnitude-Frequency Distributions and Short-Term Clustering Probabilities | Andy Michael |
| 13:30 | A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks | Peter Powers |
| 13:45 | A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks | Karen Felzer |
| 14:00 | A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks (contributions sent by people who could not attend) | Andy Michael |
| 14:15 | Break | |
| 14:30 | Discussion of the UCERF3 ETAS Implementation | Max Werner, Moderator |
| 15:15 | Modeling Swarms: A Path Toward Determining Short-Term Probabilities | Andrea Llenos |
| 15:30 | Other Time Dependencies | Jeanne Hardebeck |
| 15:45 | Other Time Dependencies | Warner Marzocchi |
| 16:00 | Discussion of Swarms and Other Time Dependencies | Karen Felzer, Moderator |
| 16:30 | General Discussion of Unresolved Issues | Ned Field, Moderator |
| 17:00 | Adjourn - all problems solved | |
| 17:30 | Dinner | Pacifica Room |