Workshop on Time-Dependent Models in UCERF3

Date: 
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Conveners: 
Ned Field, Karen Felzer, Andy Michael, & Tom Parsons
Location: 
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

This workshop will address what represents both “best-available science” and implementable models with respect to time-dependent probabilities in our UCERF3 operational forecast.  Of particular emphasis here will be how to apply elastic rebound in un-segmented fault models, how to represent spatiotemporal clustering (e.g., ETAS), and the interpretation of the empirical model (apparent seismicity rate changes).

Time Title Presenter(s)
08:30 Welcome and Introduction Andy Michael
08:35 Time Dependent Models in UCERF2 and Our Plan For UCERF3 Ned Field
09:30 A (re-) New (-ed) Spin on Renewal Models Karen Felzer
09:45 Discussion of Renewal Models Dave Jackson, Moderator
10:30 Break  
10:45 The Empirical Model and Clustering as a Cause of Long-Term Seismicity Rate Variations Karen Felzer
11:00 Should Physics-Based Models Be Implemented for Short-Term and Long-Term Probabilities? Tom Parsons
11:15 Discussion of the Empirical and Physics-Based Models Andy Michael, Moderator
12:00 Lunch Pacifica Room
13:00 Evaluation of the UCERF2 ETAS Simulation Results Karen Felzer
13:15 Magnitude-Frequency Distributions and Short-Term Clustering Probabilities Andy Michael
13:30 A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks Peter Powers
13:45 A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks Karen Felzer
14:00 A Functional Form for the Spatial Distribution of Aftershocks (contributions sent by people who could not attend) Andy Michael
14:15 Break  
14:30 Discussion of the UCERF3 ETAS Implementation Max Werner, Moderator
15:15 Modeling Swarms: A Path Toward Determining Short-Term Probabilities Andrea Llenos
15:30 Other Time Dependencies Jeanne Hardebeck
15:45 Other Time Dependencies Warner Marzocchi
16:00 Discussion of Swarms and Other Time Dependencies Karen Felzer, Moderator
16:30 General Discussion of Unresolved Issues Ned Field, Moderator
17:00 Adjourn - all problems solved  
17:30 Dinner Pacifica Room