UCERF3 Statewide Fault-Model & Paleoseismic Data Workshop (in NoCal)

Date: 
Friday, April 8, 2011
Conveners: 
Tim Dawson, Andreas Plesch, and Ray Weldon
Location: 
Building 3 Auditorium, USGS Campus, Menlo Park, CA

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) is in the process of building the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3).  One of the anticipated improvements UCERF3 is the relaxation of fault segmentation and the inclusion of multi-fault ruptures in the earthquake rate model using a formal inversion approach, referred to colloquially as the “Grand Inversion”.  Central to this, with regards to geologic data, is the Fault Model, which will define the geometry of faults and paleoseismic data, which are used to define the rates and types of ruptures within the model. 

Two regional workshops – in southern California (April 6) and in northern California (April 8) – will be held to present the new Statewide Community Fault Model (SCFM), solicit input from the scientific community regarding improvements to the fault model, and discuss integration of SCFM into the UCERF3 fault and deformation models.  The workshops will also focus on the use of paleoseismic data, such as slip rates, recurrence intervals, timing of events, and slip-per-event, as constraints in the inversion approach being pursued by UCERF3.

April 8   Presenter(s)
Part I: FAULT MODELS
10:00 UCERF3 Overview Ned Field, Ray Weldon
10:30 Statewide Community Fault Model (SCFM) Andreas Plesch
11:00 UCERF Fault Model: Sticks and connectors for multi-faul ruptures; Block models for geodetically-based deformation models Tim Dawson
11:20 Invited short presentations and discussion  
     - Concord Green Valley-Berryessa-Bartlett Springs Jim Lienkaemper
     - Great Valley Thrust system Jeff Unruh
     - Mean Recurrence Interval Estimates Tom Parsons
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Invited short presentations and discussion (continued)  
     - Polaris fault: New mapping and slip rate Jim Howle
     - Lake Tahoe Basin faults Gordon Seitz
     - Hosgri fault: New offshore mapping Sam Johnson
     - Shoreline fault seismicity and structure Jeanne Hardebeck
Part II: PALEOSEISMIC DATA CONSTRAINTS
13:30 Slip Rates: Statewide geologic slip rate compilation, potential slip rate biases, and new/revised slip rates Tim Dawson
14:00 Paleoseismic data constraints for the "Grand Inversion": Recurrence studies, slip-per-event data, average slip per event, probability of seeing events in trenches, distribution of slip in paleoevents, mean recurrence interval estimates from paleoseismic data Ray Weldon, Glenn Biasi
15:30 Invited short presentations and discussion of fault model improvements and paleoseismic data by region  
     - San Francisco Bay Area: New recurrence data, Green Valley fault Jim Lienkaemper
     - Central Coast  
     - Northeastern California  
     - Northwestern California  
16:30 Open discussion and wrap-up  
17:00 Adjourn  

 

Logistics: 

The workshop will be held in the Building 3 Auditorium at the USGS Menlo Park Campus (345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA). For map and directions, go to: http://online.wr.usgs.gov/kiosk/mparea3.html.