UCERF3 Statewide Fault-Model & Paleoseismic Data Workshop (in SoCal)
The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) is in the process of building the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3). One of the anticipated improvements UCERF3 is the relaxation of fault segmentation and the inclusion of multi-fault ruptures in the earthquake rate model using a formal inversion approach, referred to colloquially as the “Grand Inversion”. Central to this, with regards to geologic data, is the Fault Model, which will define the geometry of faults and paleoseismic data, which are used to define the rates and types of ruptures within the model.
Two regional workshops – in southern California (April 6) and in northern California (April 8) – will be held to present the new Statewide Community Fault Model (SCFM), solicit input from the scientific community regarding improvements to the fault model, and discuss integration of SCFM into the UCERF3 fault and deformation models. The workshops will also focus on the use of paleoseismic data, such as slip rates, recurrence intervals, timing of events, and slip-per-event, as constraints in the inversion approach being pursued by UCERF3.
|Part I: FAULT MODELS|
|10:00||UCERF3 Overview||Ned Field, Ray Weldon|
|10:20||Statewide Community Fault Model (SCFM)||Andreas Plesch|
|10:40||UCERF Fault Model: Sticks and connectors for multi-faul ruptures; Block models for geodetically-based deformation models||Tim Dawson|
|11:00||Invited short presentations and discussion|
|- Thrust faulting in the Inner California Borderlands||Andreas Plesch / John Shaw|
|13:00||Invited short presentations and discussion (continued)|
|- Offshore southern California||Holly Ryan|
|- Baja California||Tom Rockwell|
|- Fault zones and hierarchical nomenclature||Craig Nicholson|
|- San Fernando Valley and Transverse Ranges||Scott Lindvall|
|- California Offshore Faults - Consultant's Perspective||Phil Hogan|
|Part II: PALEOSEISMIC DATA CONSTRAINTS|
|14:00||Slip Rates: Statewide geologic slip rate compilation, potential slip rate biases, and new/revised slip rates||Tim Dawson|
|14:20||Paleoseismic data constraints for the "Grand Inversion": Recurrence studies, slip-per-event data, average slip per event, probability of seeing events in trenches, distribution of slip in paleoevents, mean recurrence interval estimates from paleoseismic data||Glenn Biasi, Ray Weldon|
|15:00||Invited short presentations and discussion of fault model improvements and paleoseismic data|
|- San Andreas fault: Frazier Mountain||Kate Scharer|
|- San Jacinto fault: Mystic Lake||Nate Onderdonk, Sally McGill|
|- San Jacinto fault: Slip rate gradients||Tom Rockwell, Sally McGill|
|16:30||Open discussion and wrap-up|
The Kellogg West Conference Center (KWCC) is conveniently located just 30 minutes outside downtown Los Angeles on the CalPoly Pomona campus. It is about 10 minutes from the Ontario Airport. Additional information on the venue, including maps and directions, can be found at www.kelloggwest.org.
Complimentary parking passes will be available at the KWCC front desk. Tell the front desk attendant you are a participant of the "SCEC Meeting".