UCERF3 Planning Meeting
On June 25, 2009 the California Earthquake Authority approved $2 million for the development of UCERF3. The project will likely start on January 1, 2010, and will last for 30 months. Our primary goals with UCERF3 are to include multi-fault ruptures and spatial, temporal clustering. The latter will require robust interoperability with real-time seismicity information, and as such, UCERF3 will bring us into the realm of operational earthquake forecasting.
We will convene for a 2-day planning meeting to (1) review the anticipated model development and (2) survey the community interest in participation, in order to refine the UCERF3 Project Plan.
|Session 1: INTRODUCTIONS|
|10:00||Welcome, Logistics, Goals of Meeting||Ned Field|
|10:10||Contract with California Earthquake Authority||Tom Jordan|
|10:20||Brief Review of UCERF2 and Goals for UCERF3||Ned Field|
|10:45||Overview of UCERF3 Construction Issues||Ned Field|
|13:00||Session 2: FAULT MODELS||Tim Dawson|
|Session 3: DEFORMATION MODELS|
|13:30||Issues With Our Existing Model||Chris Wills|
|13:40||Planned Workshop||Wayne Thatcher|
|13:50||Neokinema Applicability||Peter Bird|
|14:00||Line Integral Tools||Tom Parsons|
|Session 4: EARTHQUAKE RATE MODELS - Consilient Approaches|
|15:30||A Generalized Inverse Approach||Ned Field, Morgan Page|
|15:50||A Simulation Based Approach||Tom Parsons|
|16:05||Another Simulation Approach||David Jackson|
|16:20||Physics-Based Simulators||Jim Dieterich|
|16:35||Segmentation & Multi-Fault Ruptures||David Schwartz|
|CyberShake Platform||Rob Graves|
|Global Earthquake Forecasts||Yan Kagan|
The meeting will take place at the Kellogg West Conference Center on December 1-2, 2009. To facilitate those who plan to drive (or fly) the morning of, the meeting will start at 10:00am on December 1 and conclude by 5:00pm on December 2. The Kellogg West Conference Center is conveniently located just 30 minutes outside downtown Los Angeles on the CalPoly Pomona campus. It is about 10 minutes from the Ontario Airport. Additional information on the venue, including maps and directions, can be found at www.kelloggwest.org.