UCERF3 Planning Meeting

Tuesday, December 1, 2009 - Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Kellogg West Conference Center, Pomona, CA

On June 25, 2009 the California Earthquake Authority approved $2 million for the development of UCERF3. The project will likely start on January 1, 2010, and will last for 30 months. Our primary goals with UCERF3 are to include multi-fault ruptures and spatial, temporal clustering. The latter will require robust interoperability with real-time seismicity information, and as such, UCERF3 will bring us into the realm of operational earthquake forecasting.

We will convene for a 2-day planning meeting to (1) review the anticipated model development and (2) survey the community interest in participation, in order to refine the UCERF3 Project Plan.

Dec 1   Presenter(s)
  Session 1: INTRODUCTIONS  
10:00   Welcome, Logistics, Goals of Meeting Ned Field
10:10   Contract with California Earthquake Authority Tom Jordan
10:20   Brief Review of UCERF2 and Goals for UCERF3 Ned Field
10:45   Overview of UCERF3 Construction Issues Ned Field
11:10   Discussion  
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Session 2: FAULT MODELS Tim Dawson
13:30   Issues With Our Existing Model Chris Wills
13:40   Planned Workshop Wayne Thatcher
13:50   Neokinema Applicability Peter Bird
14:00   Line Integral Tools Tom Parsons
14:10   Discussion  
15:15 Break  
  Session 4: EARTHQUAKE RATE MODELS - Consilient Approaches  
15:30   A Generalized Inverse Approach Ned Field, Morgan Page
15:50   A Simulation Based Approach Tom Parsons
16:05   Another Simulation Approach David Jackson
16:20   Physics-Based Simulators Jim Dieterich
16:35   Segmentation & Multi-Fault Ruptures David Schwartz
16:40   Discussion  
    CyberShake Platform Rob Graves
    Global Earthquake Forecasts Yan Kagan
17:30 Adjourn  
18:00 Dinner  
Dec 2   Presenter(s)
  Session 5: EARTHQUAKE RATE MODELS - The Ingredients  
08:00   Averaging Along Strike Distribution of Slip Glenn Biasi
08:10   Magnitude-Area Relationships Paul Somerville
08:20   Average Depth Distribution of Rupture Bruce Shaw
08:30   Paleoseismic Mean Recurrence Interval Estimates Tom Parsons
08:35   The Magnitude-Frequency Distribution and Catalog Seismicity Morgan Page, Ned Field
08:45   Mmax in "Background" Seismicity Ned Field
08:50   Smoothing Background Seismicity Karen Felzer
08:55   Focal Mechanisms of "Background" Seismicity Dave Jackson
09:00   Remove Aleatory Variability in Mag(Area)? Ned Field
09:05   Quantifying Fault Jumping Probabilities Ned Field
09:15   Discussion  
10:20 Break  
10:35   Elastic-Rebound Motivated Renewal Models Ned Field
10:50   Empirical Model (Interpretations and Implications) Karen Felzer
11:05   Overview of Spatial, Temporal Clustering Models Tom Parsons
11:25   Discussion  
12:00 Lunch  
13:00   Applicability of STEP Ned Field
13:10   Applicability of ETAS Karen Felzer
13:20   Applicability of Agnew Jones Andy Michael
13:30   Millenial Clustering in Paleo Data? James Dolan
13:35   Other Time Dependencies Jeanne Hardebeck
13:45   Physics-Based Simulators Jim Dieterich
14:00   International Commission Perspective Tom Jordan
14:10   Discussion  
15:00 Break  
15:15   Model Testing Danijel Schorlemmer
15:35   Project Management and Model Review Tom Jordan
15:45   Challenges in Operational Forecasting Ned Field
15:55   Potential user Community Issues Ned Field
16:00   Need for Loss Modeling Tools Ned Field
16:05   How We Move Forward Ned Field
16:15   Discussion  
17:00 Adjourn  

The meeting will take place at the Kellogg West Conference Center on December 1-2, 2009. To facilitate those who plan to drive (or fly) the morning of, the meeting will start at 10:00am on December 1 and conclude by 5:00pm on December 2. The Kellogg West Conference Center is conveniently located just 30 minutes outside downtown Los Angeles on the CalPoly Pomona campus. It is about 10 minutes from the Ontario Airport. Additional information on the venue, including maps and directions, can be found at www.kelloggwest.org.