An Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERF) gives the probability of all possible, damaging (e.g., Magnitude>5) earthquakes throughout a region and over a specified time span.
The purpose of this Working Group is to develop a statewide, time-dependent ERF that uses best available science and is endorsed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and the California Geological Survey (CGS). This model is referred to as the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3).
Alternative UCERF versions will be developed to explore epistemic uncertainties and incorporate improvements made over time. Therefore, another goal is to reach consensus that an adequate, minimum number of alternative models has been included (i.e., that span the range of viability and importance in terms of the hazard of interest).
At lease one version of this model, applicable to a five-year forecast, is intended to be used by the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) in setting earthquake insurance rates throughout the state. This model (UCERF3) will be delivered to the CEA by June 30, 2012.
All activities in this Working Group are coordinated with the development of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. All versions of UCERF3 will be formally evaluated by a Scientific Review Panel and perhaps the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and/or the National equivalent (NEPEC).
UCERF3 will be deployed in an adaptable and extensible framework whereby modifications can be made as warranted by scientific developments, the collection of new data, or following the occurrence of significant earthquakes (subject to a review process). Our implementation strategy is to add more advanced capabilities only after achieving more modest goals.